Week 1 Preview & Predictions

Week one of the NFL season is underway with plenty of tight matchups scheduled for this weekend.  See who we’re picking and which players should have the biggest fantasy impact.

Dallas -6 at Tampa Bay

Head coach Wade Phillips begins what could be his last season in Dallas if the Cowboys don’t make the playoffs.  Dallas may have let go Terrell Owens, but they have plenty of offensive firepower, especially in the run game.  Felix Jones will become the Cowboys playmaker this season assuming he stays healthy.  The Bucs are in a transition year, and quarterback Byron Leftwich is only starting until rookie Josh Freeman is ready to take over.  Tampa looks to be going to a running back by committee approach with Cadillac Williams leading the pack as of now over Earnest Graham and Derrick Ward.

Fantasy Impact: Jason Witten could have his biggest season yet in Dallas.

Prediction:  Dallas
 

Miami +4 at Atlanta

This could be an interesting season for Miami.  Quarterback Chad Pennington has been told he will not be the starting QB in 2010 as the Dolphins want to make the transition to Chad Henne, but what if Pennington has another good season?  What if Pennington and Miami bomb early, could they go to Henne this season?  Miami has severe questions at the WR position as neither Ted Ginn, Greg Camarillo, Davone Bess, nor Brian Hartline has stepped up.  Atlanta however, is loaded at the skill positions with QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, and TE Tony Gonzalez.  They are expecting a Super Bowl run in Atlanta.

Fantasy Impact: expect the Dolphins to use Ronnie Brown early and often to keep the ball out of the hands of the Falcons offense.

Prediction:  Atlanta
 

Denver +4 at Cincinnati

Ahhh, the no defense game.  The Broncos hope to have QB Kyle Orton back for this game as he suffered a dislocated forefinger about two weeks ago.  All signs are that he should play.  WR Brandon Marshall should also be playing for Denver assuming he doesn’t have a major blowup between now and Sunday.  There are also rumors that the Broncos and Marshall are now working on a contract extension.  Things in Cincy aren’t much quieter.  Ochocinco is still as crazy as ever, and who knows what stunt he might pull if and when he scores on Sunday.  Carson Palmer is back and seems to be healthy.  With receivers like Ochocinco, Chris Henry, and Laveraneus Coles, Palmer could be in for a nice back bounce season if he can remain so.

Fantasy Impact: Everyone starts in this game.

Prediction:  Cincinnati
 

Minnesota -4 at Cleveland

The return of Brett Favre.  Couldn’t have asked for a better game to come back against – not like Cleveland has the toughest defense on the planet.  It does look like Cleveland will go with QB Brady Quinn, but one has to wonder if he will be on a short leash this season.  Speaking of short leashes, how much longer will Jamal Lewis remain as the Browns’ number one RB?  James Davis is lurking.

Fantasy Impact: sit all of your Browns RBs in this one.

Prediction:  Minnesota

Jacksonville +7 at Indianapolis

Not much to say about the Jaguars.  I’m not much of a believer in them this season.  Torry Holt is the only curiosity I have on that team.  Can he perform as well on grass as he did on turf?  Unlikely at this stage of his career.  The Jaguars will go as far as RB Maurice Jones-Drew can take them.  The Colts still have Manning and therefore are still dangerous.  Biggest question, will Joseph Addai be able to hold off Donald Brown all season?  That will depend on how well he plays and if he can stay healthy – something he has not been able to do.  Anthony Gonzalez will finally get to show the world if he is ready for a starting role, but I would look for TE Dallas Clark to be the second leading receiver in Indy.  And surprise surprise, S Bob Sanders is hurt again.

Fantasy Impact: I love Drew, but not sure how much of an impact he can make if the Jaguars fall behind early in the game.

Prediction:  Indianapolis

Detroit +13 at New Orleans

In case you’re wondering, and I was, Detroit has lost 17 regular season games in a row.  Their last win was in a game that counted was against Kansas City in 2007.  Last road win was versus Chicago, 12 games.  Neither one of those streaks is going to end here.  Detroit will look to keep the ball on the ground and away from Drew Brees and company, but it’s not going to matter.  The Lions have decided to let first overall pick QB Matthew Stafford take his lumps and start the rookie QB.  He has Calvin Johnson to throw to, but the Lions will want to ease him into the offense.  Pierre Thomas is questionable with a knee injury, not to mention a lacerated foot.  Reggie Bush is ready to go, and Brees is ready and raring to go.

Fantasy Impact: If you have a Saints starter, he starts here, with the exception of Thomas, as Mike Bell may be a better play this week.

Prediction:  New Orleans

 
Philadelphia +2.5 at Carolina

Could be the game of the week here and possibly the one I’m looking most forward to watching.  QB Donovan McNabb can no longer complain that he doesn’t have enough playmakers, as the Eagles have added receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin in the last two drafts.  They also drafted LeSean McCoy to take over for Brian Westbrook once he missed action.  The defense might be more of a question mark with the death of coordinator Jim Johnson and some untimely injuries.  The Panthers have one of the best running games around with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and if QB Jake Delhomme can rebound from a poor playoff loss in 2008 and get the ball to WR Steve Smith, then they can be a force to be reckoned with.

Fantasy Impact: Start Williams, as Stewart is still hurt, and Philly has a tough time stopping the run.

Prediction:  Philadelphia

 
Kansas City +12.5 at Baltimore

KC is just a mess.  New Head Coach Todd Haley waited until halfway through the pre-season before firing his Offensive Coordinator.  QB import Matt Cassel suffered a sprained MCL in the pre-season and will be gimpy at best for Sunday.  WR Dwayne Bowe is healthy but had an attitude problem all camp which led him to playing with the second unit.  Just ugly.  Baltimore however looks like they will once again make a run in the AFC North.  We all know they have a great defense and running game, but like the Giants, they need one of their Wide Receivers to step up and be a playmaker for QB Joe Flacco.

Fantasy Impact: everyone sits on KC, even Bowe, if you have an adequate replacement for him.

Prediction:  Baltimore

 
Jets +4.5 at Houston

The Jets are another team going with a rookie QB to start the season as Mark Sanchez gets the call.  Pretty easy decision here as the Jets really didn’t have anyone else on the roster worthy of the job.  The Jets recipe for winning is simple, play great defense and hand the ball to Thomas Jones and Leon Washington.  Houston is poised to finally make a run at the playoffs,  as long as QB Matt Schaub can stay healthy.  They have the offensive weapons with RB Steve Slaton, WRs Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, and TE Owen Daniels.  They can and will score points.

Fantasy Impact: Chris Brown will be a TD vulture for those of you who own Steve Slaton.

Prediction:  Houston

 
Redskins +6.5 at Giants

Now here’s a game that promises to be a defensive battle.  The Redskins have improved their defense immensely in the off-season, specifically with the addition of DT Albert Haynesworth.  Problem is their offensive line is flawed ,and Jason Campbell may be buried in the turf by game’s end.  The Giants like the Ravens need one of their young receivers to step up and be a playmaker for them to get to where they want to go.

Fantasy Impact: Not sure anyone is startable here.  Both teams will shut down the run, but I could see TEs Chris Cooley and Kevin Boss having solid games.

Prediction:  Giants

 
San Francisco +6.5 at Arizona

The 49ers have to be disappointed that first round pick WR Michael Crabtree still has not reported to camp.  Time for this rookie to wake up and smell the coffee.  QB Shaun Hill won the battle to start over Alex Smith, but let’s face it, this offense is all about RB Frank Gore.  Defending NFC champs Arizona will start to prove that last season wasn’t a fluke with this game.  Questions for Arizona include, can QB Kurt Warner remain healthy for a full season again?  When Will Chris “Beanie” Wells take over the starting RB job?  The answer to the first question is unlikely and the second one is, shortly.  Warner had off-season hip surgery and I just wouldn’t bet on him starting 16 games again.  Wells just needs to get some experience and then he will become the main ball carrier in the desert.  Of course that doesn’t mean much when you throw the ball as much as the Cardinals do - and who can blame them with receivers like Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston, and Jerheme Urban.

 
St. Louis +8 at Seattle

Not much has gone right for the Rams this season.  QB Marc Bulger broke a finger and number one WR Donnie Avery broke a bone in his foot, yet both should be ready for week one.  Of course it’s not saying much when Avery is your number one.  The Rams offense is built around RB Steve Jackson, and if he can avoid the eight man fronts he is sure to see, he will reward fantasy owners handsomely.  Seattle may be a team that can fly under the radar in the NFC this season.  The defense is solid with no obvious holes and if QB Matt Hasselbeck can remain healthy, he is still one of the better passers in the NFC.  The running game is nothing special with RB Julius Jones and Edgerrin James so if Hasselbeck were to go down again it would be season over for Seattle.

Fantasy Impact: Jackson is an automatic start no matter who the Rams are facing.  Might not start Wells yet for Arizona.

Prediction:  Seattle

 
Chicago +3.5 at Green Bay

A nice division rivalry to get the season started for these two teams.  Jay Cutler starts his Bears career against the team they hate most.  Can WRs Devin Hester or Earl Bennett be to Cutler what Brandon Marshall was in Denver?  I doubt it.  One good thing is RB Matt Forte should not be seeing many eight man fronts.  QB Aaron Rodgers could be ready to take that next step this season.  We already know he is a good QB, the question now is if he can be a great one.  He has the receivers in Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and James Jones, not to mention an up and coming TE in Jermichael Finely.  RB Ryan Grant will keep the defenses honest.

Fantasy Impact:   Not as sold on the Bears defense as some others, I’d start my Packer players.

Prediction:  Green Bay

 
Buffalo +10.5 at New England

Take your choice on a storyline here.  WR Terrell Owens makes his debut for the Bills or QB Tom Brady makes his comeback from ACL surgery for the Patriots.  Buffalo has a porous offensive line, to put it nicely and QB Trent Edwards may be running for his life quite a bit this season.  RB Fred Jackson could be a nice addition for a few games until Marshawn Lynch returns from suspension. 

Fantasy Impact: Brady is going to light it up this week, Belichick will want to make a statement.

Prediction:  New England

 
San Diego -9 at Oakland

San Diego plays their first of 16 meaningless games at they are going to walk to division title.  What to watch for?  Does LaDainian Tomlinson have any gas left in the tank?  I think he does.  QB Phillip Rivers like Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay may be ready to make that next leap into stardom.  Oakland is a disaster.  They just traded away a number one pick for DT Richard Seymour, and as of this writing Seymour has still not reported.

Fantasy Impact: Doesn’t LT always seem to throw for a TD against Oakland?

Prediction:  San Diego

This post was written by George Kurtz