Predicting The Top Fantasy Disappointments of 2009

With drafts completed and the season underway, here are the marquee players we think will be the biggest disappointments from a fantasy perspective.  It’s not that these players won’t produce at all, but they won’t justify their value based on where they were drafted. 

1.      Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears:  Don’t get me wrong, I love the trade for Chicago.  It’s not every day that you are able to acquire a franchise quarterback.   The problem for fantasy owners is that wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal didn’t come along with him.  Earl Bennett has a chance to be a solid WR, especially since he has worked with Cutler when they were both at Vanderbilt, but Devin Hester is a big time wildcard.  He has tremendous upside with his speed, but he is also a converted return man who is going to have stretches where he can’t get open and produce big plays.  Let’s not forget that the weather in Chicago can make throwing the football a hazardous affair later on in the season, and the Bears do have a great running back in Matt Forte that will be the focal point of this offense.  Cutler may end up being a better QB in reality than fantasy.

2.      Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings:  You can count me as one of those people who believe the addition of Favre to the Vikings offense won’t make all that much of a difference.  If anything it could hurt the team if the Vikings feel they need to throw the ball more often now with Favre rather than hand the ball to All-Pro running back Adrian Peterson.  Not to mention, you know Favre will audible out of running plays if he thinks he can make a big play in the passing game.  Favre doesn’t have the arm strength he used to and loves to take chances.  In those leagues that award minus points for interceptions, he could really hurt you. And I know he hasn’t missed a game since the Civil War, but he already has a tear in his rotator cuff that may get worse as the season progresses, and getting pounded into the turf at the Metrodome certainly won’t do any wonders for his health.  Listen, I would have no problem with Favre as a QB2 on my team, but if you he’s your starter, then you need to realize this is 2009, not 1999.

3.      Eli Manning, New York Giants:  The younger Manning signed a contract extension that makes him the highest paid player in the NFL.  That’s great for Eli, but it doesn’t mean he should be a starter on your fantasy team.  He’s a Super Bowl winning quarterback and certainly has had some bright NFL moments, but for fantasy teams, he’s not going to lead you to a championship.  First and foremost, the Giants have always been a team that wins with the running game and defense.  With RBs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw toting the rock, and a host of unproven wide receivers to throw to, that formula will remain the same for the 2009 season.

4.      Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams:  Jackson has all the talent in the world, but I’m not sure that means a thing playing in that offense.  Name another player on that team that is truly worthy of fantasy consideration.  QB Marc Bulger, please, his best days are far behind him and he is coming off a broken finger.  WR Donnie Avery would be a nice speed player to have, but he is miscast as a number one receiver on St. Louis, and is also coming off an injury.  He suffered a stress fracture in his foot that makes you wonder if he will be up to full speed early in the season.  The point to this is that Jackson is going to see constant eight man defensive fronts.  The Rams are certainly going to feed him the ball early and often and while you love this as a fantasy owner, you also have to remember that he hasn’t proven to be the most durable of backs the past couple of seasons.

5.      Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints:  The concern with Bush is obvious, can he stay healthy?  In a PPR league I might take the chance, but in non-PPR leagues I just don’t see the reason to draft him.  He has barely practiced or played this preseason due to a strained calf and had off-season knee surgery.  Bottom line, if you draft Bush, you have no right to complain when he is listed as questionable each week and is forced to miss a handful of games.

6.      Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills:  Anyone who watched Owens play for Dallas last season should know exactly what defenses were doing to stop him -press coverage.  Owens had a tough time getting off the bump and run, and this was playing with a top QB and running game.  The Bills offensive line is in shambles, which could lead to QB Trent Edwards scrambling quite often and unable to get the ball to Owens.  Their top running back, Marshawn Lynch has to serve a three game suspension, and TO himself is coming off a toe injury that has sidelined him for most of the pre-season.  Keep this in mind when thinking about selecting Owens – like Favre, his best days are behind him.

 7.      Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs:  So many red flags pop up when I think about Bowe.  Starting QB Matt Cassel, who I have doubts about in the first place, is dealing with a sprained MCL to start the season.  Like Steven Jackson in St. Louis, where is the other talent on the roster to take the double coverage off of Bowe?  Losing Tony Gonazalez will make getting open more difficult this season.  Bowe had an attitude problem througout pre-season and the Chiefs fired their offensive coordinator two weeks before the start of the season.  Too many flags to ignore.

This post was written by George Kurtz