Week 5 Preview & Predictions

Houston +6 at Arizona

Now if you’re looking for a game that could be a shootout, this would be the one.  QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson must have seen what Jacksonville and Indianapolis did to the Arizona secondary and are licking their lips.  RB Steve Slaton finally had a solid game in Week 4, so his owners can now relax.  As for the Cardinals, their biggest problem seems to be the lack of a deep passing game.  QB Kurt Warner has been dumping the ball off shorter than normal leading to questions of whether or not he is completely healthy.  Perhaps a week off will allow his hip to feel back to normal.

Fantasy Impact: No reason not to start all of your players here as this promises to be the highest scoring game of the week.

Prediction:  Arizona

Cleveland +6 at Buffalo

The battle of… who cares.  With the trade of wide receiver Braylon Edwards to the Jets on Wednesday, Mohamed Massaquoi now becomes the number one receiving option for quarterback Derek Anderson, ouch.  Perhaps Brian Robiskie now becomes a bigger factor in the passing game.  Someone has to explain to me why Buffalo would have running back Marshawn Lynch touch the ball more than Fred Jackson.  Wasn’t Jackson pretty much their MVP through the first three weeks of the season?

Fantasy Impact:  If Terrell Owens can’t get it going in this game, he may never get it going.  One has to believe running back Jerome Harrison is the man now in Cleveland.

Prediction:  Cleveland

 

Dallas -9 at Kansas City

Hard to know what to make out of this Cowboys team.  Their strength seems to be in the running game, yet they have an Offensive Coordinator who wants to pass the ball.  Quarterback Tony Romo looks like he is thinking too much in the pocket rather than just letting it fly.  His receivers just can’t get any separation, and with Running Back Felix Jones a near certainty to miss this game, they just lack big plays on offense.  Using All-Pro Tight End Jason Witten to block and not going out to catch a pass with the game on the line last Sunday is a head scratcher to say the least.  The Chiefs are a bad team, but Dallas has been susceptible to the pass, perhaps Wide Receiver Dwayne Bowe gets untracked here.

Fantasy Impact: Running Back Marion Barber should be at full strength for the Cowboys, Wide Receiver Roy Williams, not so much.  If Williams can’t go, Miles Austin, not Sam Hurd would take his place in the starting lineup.

Prediction:  Dallas

 

Pittsburgh -11 at Detroit

After watching Rashard Mendenhall run the ball down the Chargers throat Sunday night, one has to think the Lions are in for the same thing.  Pittsburgh has to be thrilled that they finally seem to have a running game.  Daunte Culpepper will start for the injured Matthew Stafford.  Stafford looks to be out a week or two with a dislocated kneecap.

Fantasy Impact: Culpepper is sure to try and hit Wide Receiver Calvin Johnson with some deep passes.

Prediction:  Pittsburgh

 

Minnesota -10 at St. Louis

Hard to see this game being anything else but a blowout.  Maybe a letdown game for the Vikings after playing on Monday night versus the hated Packers.  Even so they shouldn’t have much of a problem with the Rams.  Quarterback Brett Favre proved on Monday that he can lead a team to victory with his arm, making teams have to choose whether they want to control the passing game, or try and take away Adrian Peterson and the running game.  Rams Running Back Steven Jackson should be in for another tough afternoon trying to run against the Vikings front seven.  Kyle Boller looks like he will once again start for the Rams.

Fantasy Impact: Peterson hasn’t made to much noise the past few weeks, look for that to end Sunday.

Prediction:  Minnesota

 

Oakland +16 at Giants

The biggest spread of the season to date.  The Raiders are a mess and going nowhere fast, they will have to play the next 2-4 weeks without Running Back Darren MacFadden.  This means Justin Fargas and Michael Bush will split the carries.  The Giants are dealing with an injury to Quarterback Eli Manning.  He hasn’t practiced the past two days due to a heel injury.  Steve Smith may find the going much tougher this week matched up against Nnamdi Asomugha.

Fantasy Impact: If Eli can’t go, all of the Giants go down a notch as they will try and win the game on the ground rather than through the air.  Best guess is Eli starts, but comes out as soon as the Giants have the game in hand.

Prediction:  Giants

 

Tampa Bay +15 at Philadelphia

The Bucs have made it known that Running Back Cadillac Williams will be their number one ball carrier, and they want to treat him as such.  Quarterback Josh Johnson made his first career start last week versus the Redskins and outside of his athletic ability was generally unimpressive.  His struggles behind Center make it difficult to recommend Wide Receiver Antonio Bryant or Tight End Kellen Winslow.  The Eagles got a little healthier after their bye week and will have the services of QB Donovan McNabb and RB Brian Westbrook in this one.  McNabb has stated that he is still not 100%, but he is good enough to go.

Fantasy Impact: Another injured Eagle; WR Kevin Curtis will play, but won’t be at 100% either.

Prediction:  Philadelphia

 

Washington +4 at Carolina

If the Redskins had been playing teams that were average or better, they would be 0-4, instead, they are somehow 2-2.  The Redskins just don’t seem to trust QB Jason Campbell with the ball in the red zone, choosing to run ball, or try gimmick plays.  WR Santana Moss has seemed to have found his game the past few weeks.  Hopefully Carolina has fixed their problems after they bye.  They have had a terrible time on defense trying to stop the run and on offense QB Jake Delhomme has had a hard time keeping the ball out of the opposing team’s hands.

Fantasy Impact: RB Clinton Portis looks like a must start this week.

Prediction:  Carolina

 

Cincinnati +9 at Baltimore

Both teams are 3-1, but while the Ravens look like contenders, the Bengals look like pretenders to me.  They are certainly not winning games impressively, but are getting the job done and that is all that matters.  The Ravens might be 4-0 if not for a dropped pass by WR Mark Clayton at the end of the game last week versus New England.

Fantasy Impact: No one rushed for over 100 yards versus Baltimore, should be safe to sit RB Cedric Benson in this one.

Prediction:  Cincinnati

 

Atlanta +3 at San Francisco

The Falcons come back after their bye with a tough matchup against the 49ers.  The Falcons haven’t been able to get their offense untracked, relying on short passes to move the ball.  The 49ers have one of the better defenses in the league and this may not be the coming out party for Atlanta.

Fantasy Impact: RB Frank Gore is out another game, so make sure you start Glen Coffee here.  Yes, WR Michael Crabtree finally signed with the 49ers this week, but he won’t be fantasy relevant until after the 49ers bye.

Prediction:  Atlanta

 

Jacksonville +3 Seattle

QB David Garrard has gone from the scrap heap to someone you have to consider starting each week.  He’s the kind of player you want to ride when he’s hot.  Having a solid WR in Mike Sims-Walker seems to have worked wonders for Garrard’s confidence.  Seahawks QB Matt Hasselback looks to return to his starting job after suffering a fractured rib on Sunday.  Seneca Wallace did an adequate job in his place, and Hasselback has a strong matchup here.

Fantasy Impact: Garrard may be hot, but free agent WR Torry Holt is not.  With the emergence of Sims-Walker, Holt is no more than the third target for Jacksonville.

Prediction:  Seattle

 

New England -4 at Denver

The loss of RB Fred Taylor to ankle surgery is probably not as big a blow as one might think.  The Patriots use a committee at running back anyway; this just means more carries for Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk.  How Coach Belichick will divide them up is a tossup, but one has to think Maroney gets first crack.  Denver is quickly dispelling the notion that they a good team.  Much like the Bengals, they may not win pretty, but they do win.  This will be a true test against a team many think could represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.  A win here and there can be no doubt as to the legitimacy of the Broncos.

Fantasy Impact:  RB Correll Buckhalter is doubtful for this game meaning Knowshon Moreno could get a bulk of the carries and have a big game.

Prediction:  New England

 

Indianapolis -5 at Tennessee

The Colts seem to be hitting on all cylinders offensively, and with the week after being a bye week, they will only be stronger with the return of WR Anthony Gonzalez and Safety Bob Sanders.  The Titans are pretty much playing for their season here, another loss puts them at 0-5 and they might as well pack it in. 

Fantasy Impact:  If the Titans keep losing, QB Kerry Collins time as the starting QB may be running out.

Prediction:  Indianapolis

 

Jets -2 at Miami

If the Jets believe they were one player away from going where they want to go, than they found that player in WR Braylon Edwards.  The risk was minimal as they only gave up WR Chansi Stuckey, a special teams player, 3^rd and 5^th round draft picks.  At the very least, Edwards will keep teams from doubling WR Jericho Cotchery.  The Dolphins are going to run the ball, and then run it some more.  Should be interesting to see how QB Chad Henne reacts to his first prime time game. 

Fantasy Impact:   The Dolphins secondary has had a rough go with Tight Ends; Dustin Keller could have a big game here.

Prediction:  Jets

 LAST WEEK: 6-8

OVERALL: 35-27

This post was written by George Kurtz